The civil war in Syria, which has been raging since 2011, entered a new dimension on 27 November when jihadist groups led by Hay'at Tahrir al-sham (HTS) attacked Aleppo. HTS, which captured Aleppo in s hort period of time, then announced on 5 December that it took control of the city centre of Hama and started to advance towards the city of Homs. While the Syrian army was unable to defend the cities against the HTS advance, statements of support for Assad came from Iraq and Yemen. However, the advance of HTS, which has set Damascus as its target, continues. The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army (SNA), acting together with HTS, started to organise attacks on the villages of Manbij in North & East Syria. In the process that started with the Aleppo attacks, massacres took place in Aleppo, Til Rifaat and Shahba regions, and houses, factories and shops in the cities were looted. Thousands of people migrated to areas secured by the Syrian Democratic Forces (QSD). The migration routes were occasionally blocked by paramilitary groups and attacks were organised against the civilian population. 

 

 

We talked to journalist and writer Yusuf Karadaş about the latest developments in Syria and scenarios for the coming period.

 

Karadaş emphasised that the process that started with the capture of Aleppo by HTS and SNA in Syria is not independent from what has been happening in the region for more than a year, and reminded that since 7 October 2023, Israel has intervened in Gaza, Palestine, Lebanon and Syria. Karadaş noted that the US is conducting a design policy through Israel against Iran and the forces in cooperation with it, which are defined as the "Axis of Resistance" in the Middle East. Karadaş said: "Russia's focusing its attention and energy there due to the Ukraine war led to the weakening of its position here. For Iran, even just the Jîna Amînî actions are enough to see that it is not comfortable at home as well as the developments in the region. When we put all these together, we see that there is a suitable ground for intervention to reverse the picture shaped on the Russian-Iranian axis in Syria. There is also the fact that Ukrainian intelligence provides training to HTS, and HTS equipment is provided by the US, UK and NATO. When we look at the total, the mobilisation of HTS and SNA functions as a continuation of the policy of redesigning the region with Israel at the centre."

 

SCENARIO OF THE DIVISION OF SYRIA INTO 3

 

Stating that HTS's entry into Hama after Aleppo is also remarkable, Karadaş continued as follows: "HTS's advance in Hama is seen as a part of the scenario of the division of Syria into Sunni, Alevi and Kurdish regions on the line of Hama, Homs and Damascus, similar to Iraq. The 'moderate' and 'you are not our target' statements made against the Kurds also suggest such a scenario. The point where the interests of HTS, SNA, Turkey, Israel and the US intersect in Syria is the decline of the Assad regime and the limitation of the influence of Russia and Iran. Both the mobilised forces and the forces behind them are in agreement on this point."

 

DIFFERENCE OF SNA

 

Karadaş said that SNA, unlike HTS, is shaped directly as Turkey's paid jihadist groups, and in this context, SNA's priority is Tel Rifaat or Kurdish neighbourhoods in Aleppo. Stating that the government in Turkey aims to seize Manbij after Tel Rifaat west of the Euphrates, Karadaş said: "These developments are seen as an opportunity for this. As it is openly written in the news reports of the pro-government media, National Intelligence Organisation (MİT) is also on the field and they reveal this goal. Erdoğan's government promises the SNA that 'we will involve you in the political future of Syria'. We can talk about 2 objectives of Turkey. The first is to use the position gained by HTS and SNA to update the Astana process in its favour. As a continuation of this, it wants to ensure that Assad sits at the table with it without preconditions. Behind the desire to meet with Assad is the goal of eliminating the autonomous administration in Rojava. There is an approach of co-operating with Assad to eliminate the status of the Kurds rather than the participation of all actors in Syria in the administration."

 

'POSES A RISK FOR ERDOGAN'

 

Pointing out that the redesign situation in the region poses risks for the Erdoğan government, Karadaş said: "Even the call for 'talks with Öcalan' on the Kurdish issue reflects the concern of the Turkish rulers about the risks and the search to turn these risks into advantages. For example, in 2013-2015, the Erdoğan government had the aim of both backing up the Kurds in the intervention to overthrow the Syrian regime and gaining the support of the Kurdish movement for the presidential regime in the country. But the reality of Rojava in Syria revealed a different picture. In the 2015 elections in Turkey, the AKP lost the majority of votes that would have allowed it to rule alone for the first time until then. When we think about today's process, it is clear that the steps it has taken in the region are risky for itself. It wants to eliminate these risks and open up space for its expansionist policies. However, this does not exclude the possibility that these will turn back on itself. To the extent that democratic forces in the country become a strong option against this policy, this picture will change."

 

'STRUGGLE AGAINST IMPERIALISM'

 

Karadaş said that jihadist groups can risk everything to protect their own position where they see that they cannot be useful, and stated that although ISIS has weakened in the region, it tells many things as the reality of the region. Stating that the struggle for sharing between the imperialists and the reactionaries in the region, such as the government in Turkey, provides a living space for jihadist organisations like HTS, Karadaş continued as follows: "It is not possible for this threat to disappear befor the imperialists leave, before the occupations come to an end and the peoples determine their own future, before a future where the rights in the region will live in peace and democracy is established. As long as the struggle for sovereignty between the powers in such a geography continues, peoples will continue to suffer ethnic, religious and identity divisions and countries will continue to be destroyed. It is possible for the peoples to determine their own future by uniting against these policies imposed on them as fate. No policy that does not object to these policies can ensure the construction of peace and democracy in the Middle East."

 

MA / Tolga Güney