In 2024, the Middle East was the scene of the conflicts between global imperialist powers and regional dynamics. The developments in Iraq, Iran, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, the Gulf countries, Egypt and Kurdistan during the year have revealed a picture that new balances may emerge in the coming period.

 

BAATH REGIME COLLAPSED IN SYRIA 

 

The civil war that started in Syria in 2011 evolved into a different phase this year. Following the attacks launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on 26 November, the 61-year Baath regime came to an end. Bashar al-Assad took refuge in Russia and a great uncertainty emerged in the region.

 

Taking advantage of this situation, Turkey and its affiliated Syrian National Army (SNA) launched attacks against North and East Syria. At least 162 civilians were killed and 194 people were injured in the attacks throughout the year.

 

Tens of thousands of people in Shahba and Tal Rifaat were forced to migrate after the attacks of Turkey and the SNA. This was followed by heavy attacks on Manbij. While a ceasefire has been declared in the city under the mediation of the USA, attacks by paramilitary groups continue from time to time.

 

ISRAELI ATTACKS

 

The most prominent developments during the year were the attacks carried out by Israel. Israel continued its attacks throughout the year, justifying the attacks launched by Hamas on 7 October 2023. In Israel's attacks on the Gaza Strip, at least 44 thousand people, including 192 journalists, were killed and more than a hundred thousand people were injured. Israel later expanded its attacks into Lebanon, Syria, Egypt, Yemen and Iran.

 

Israel invaded South Lebanon. Ongoing clashes resulted in a ceasefire in late November. Israel carried out more than 300 airstrikes across Syria after Damascus fell under HTS control. Israel also crossed the buffer zone in the Golan Heights on its border with Syria, which has been demilitarised since 1973, and entered Syria.

 

On 17 September, Israel detonated pagers used by Hezbollah members in Lebanon. In the cyber attacks, 42 people were killed and more than 3,500 people were injured. The attacks were followed by the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut on 27 September. Hezbollah Executive Council Chair Hashim Safiyuddin, who was expected to replace Nasrallah, was also killed in an attack in Beirut on 23 October.

 

The Lebanese Ministry of Health announced that more than 4 thousand people lost their lives in attacks on Lebanon between 8 October 2023 and 24 November 2024. According to data released by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, at least 1 million 900 thousand people were displaced throughout Lebanon due to the attacks during the year. On 27 November, a ceasefire was declared, but Israeli attacks continued. At least 27 people lost their lives in the attacks during the ceasefire.

 

AKP LOST AT THE LOCAL ELECTIONS

 

The local elections held in Turkey on 31 March were the most important development of the year. The AKP-MHP government suffered a serious blood loss due to its "anti-Kurdish" policy. AKP won 12 metropolitan mayorships, YRP 1, DEM Party 3 and CHP 14. In 51 provincial mayorships, AKP won 12, İYİ Party 1, BBP 1, YRP 1, DEM Party 7, CHP 21 and MHP 8.

 

In district municipalities, the results were as follows: AKP 346, İYİ Party 22, Left Party 1, BBP 13, DSP 1, YRP 37, DEM Party 57, CHP 314, Democrat Party 2, MHP 114, TİP 1, DEVA 1, Felicity Party 1. Independent candidates won 9 district municipalities. It was decided to renew the elections in Aksaray Güzelyurt, Kayseri Pınarbaşı, Riha (Urfa)/Hîlvan, Sivas Yıldızeli Güneykaya, Dêrsim (Tunceli) Mazgirt Akpazar, Kırklareli Lüleburgaz Büyükkarıştıran and Aksaray center Sağlık towns.

 

AKP, which was the second party in the elections, then introduced trustee practices. Trustees were appointed to Colemêrg (Hakkari), Esenyurt, Merdîn (Mardin) Metropolitan, Êlih (Batman), Xelfetî (Halfeti), Dêrsim and Pulur (Ovacık) and Miks (Bahçesaray) municipalities respectively.

 

Another important development of the year was the visit of AKP Chair and President Tayyip Erdoğan to Baghdad and the signing of a preliminary agreement with Iraq, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates for the "Development Road". Following this agreement, Turkey increased its attacks against the areas in the Federated Kurdistan Region. In addition to the attacks on Zap, Metîna and Avaşîn regions, North and East Syria were also frequently targeted during this period. The defence ministers of Turkey and Iraq signed the "memorandum of understanding on military, security and counter-terrorism ooperation (MoU)" after talks in Ankara on 15 August. Within the scope of the agreement, it was decided to establish a Joint Security Coordination Center in Baghdad, the capital of Iraq.

 

REISI'S HELICOPTER CRASHED

 

Iran, which is at the centre of the equations established in the Middle East, has lost a lot of its influence in the region with the fall of the Damascus government. On 3 January, 91 people lost their lives in an attack near the grave of Qasem Soleimani in Kirman, Iran, which was claimed by ISIS.

 

Iran was subjected to Israeli attacks throughout the year. Ismail Heniyye, the head of the Hamas Political Bureau, was killed in an Israeli attack in the Iranian capital Tehran on 31 July. Israeli-Iranian tensions also escalated after the assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in the Lebanese capital Beirut. Iran carried out hundreds of missile attacks on Israel on different dates.

 

Another development during the year was the death of Iranian President Ibrahim Reisi in a helicopter crash. Following Reisi's death, presidential elections for the 14th term were held on 6 July. Massoud Pezeshkiyan became the 9th president of the country, receiving 53.7 per cent of the vote in the second round of the election.

 

JORDAN

 

Jordan, located on the route of the new trade route that will connect India to the Middle East and Europe, held elections for members of the House of Representatives on 10 September. The victory of the Islamic Labour Front in 31 out of 138 seats showed that the influence of the Muslim Brotherhood in the country started to increase again. Another important development in the country, which is struggling with economic crisis and unemployment, was the drone attack on 28 January in which 3 US soldiers were killed and 25 people were wounded.

 

AFGHANISTAN

 

Violations due to "Sharia" rules continued in Afghanistan, where the US left the administration to the Taliban in 2021. Tens of thousands of people had to migrate from Afghanistan to different countries this year. Afghanistan under Taliban rule has turned into an open prison for women and children. Women, whose rights are restricted in every field from health to education, sports to entertainment, have started to create alternative spaces for themselves with solidarity.

 

More than 400 people lost their lives in the northern provinces of Afghanistan due to heavy rains in May. The death of Afghanistan's Minister of Refugee and Migrant Affairs Xelîl El Rehman Heqanî in an explosion at the ministry headquarters in the capital Kabul on 11 December was among the important developments.

 

GULF REGION

 

The year 2024 was a year of reconciliations and diplomatic moves for the Gulf countries, comprising Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, Yemen and Oman. Starting with the 2020 Ibrahim Accords and the 2021 Al-Ula summit, the process of reconciliations continued with the Turkey-Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on 31 July. 2024 was a year of continued economic growth in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, despite the decline in oil production and global economic uncertainties. Saudi Arabia's economy grew by around 3 per cent. Although the conflict between Israel and Hamas had political and social repercussions in the Gulf countries, no country, except Yemen, took a clear stance and pursued a long-term policy of balance. The Houthis, who targeted Israeli or Israeli-bound ships in the Red Sea in support of Palestine, were put on the world agenda with the US and UK air strikes on Yemen. The attacks in the Red Sea and Iran's influence in this region have been decisive in Gulf security strategies.

 

MOROCCO, ALGERIA, TUNISIA, LIBYA...

 

The establishment of energy lines in Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt were the main agenda items. Water shortages, high temperatures and forest fires in North Africa have caused massive migration in Libya, Algeria and Morocco.

 

Focusing on energy projects in 2024, Morocco took important steps, especially in the construction of a natural gas pipeline with Nigeria. Morocco was at the centre of 2 prominent projects for natural gas exports starting from Nigeria and extending to Europe. Morocco, which aims to strengthen economic ties with Sahel countries with these projects, continued to struggle with unemployment and corruption in domestic politics, natural disasters such as earthquakes and floods throughout the year.

 

In Libya, the political instability that started after the Arab Spring continued. While the civil war that started in the country after 2011 continued, the migration crisis and energy policies were among the topics that set the agenda.

 

In Tunisia, where the Arab Spring started in 2010, President Qais Said's dissolution of the parliament and constitutional amendments led to a major political crisis in the country. Protests and clashes between opposing views once again brought the risk of civil war to the agenda.

 

In Algeria, which is struggling with human rights violations and economic problems, the elections held on 7 September were marked by a boycott. The turnout rate remained at 26.5 per cent in the elections, which resulted in the election of the army-backed current President Abdel Majid Tebbun for the second term.

 

In Egypt, the 29-year rule of Hosni Mubarak ended in February 2011. In the elections held afterwards, the Freedom and Justice Party led by Mohamed Morsi, who is in line with the Muslim Brotherhood, came to power, but was overthrown 8 months later by the coup d'état carried out by the then Chief of General Staff Abdulfettah al-Sisi. One of the most important developments in the past year was the official welcome of Sisi in Ankara on 4 September by AKP President Tayyip Erdoğan, who had previously called him a "murderer and coup plotter".

 

Tomorrow: Ecology

 

MA / Emrullah Acar