The attacks launched by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) on Aleppo on November 27th resulted in the overthrow of the 61 years Baath regime. Along with the attacks, Turkey and the SNA, which it established and supported, launched attacks on the regions under the control of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Commenting on the fall of the regime and the new situation, Middle East expert Bereket Kar stated that Kurds will have an important place in the new map of Syria. 

 

Reminding that HTS has its origins in Al-Qaeda, Kar noted that the situation in Syria is the result of the agreement of international powers. Kar argued that Israel's failure to achieve its main goals in Palestine was effective in the emergence of developments in Syria, and stated that Israel has a 3-stage plan. He stated that the first stage of the plan is Palestine, the second stage is Lebanon and the third stage is Syria. Stating that Israel was unable to dismantle the structure of Hezbollah and realize its plan to invade South Lebanon during 55 days of attacks in Lebanon, Kar said that Israel was forced to make a ceasefire under the pressure of the US. He said that Israeli Prime Minister Benyamin Netenyahu is launching an uprising in Syria to cover up his failure there, although this is not the only reason. 

 

'IT IS AIMED AT IMPLEMENTING ABRAHAM ACCORDS'

 

Stating that Turkey has a role in the process unfolding in Syria, Kar pointed to Turkey and the organizations it supports and emphasized that the main role belongs to the US-Israel. Stating that the US and Israel's goal is to realize the Abraham Accords, Kar said: “The plans of both Israel and the US in the region are not only directed towards Syria. This project is an attempt to realize the Abraham Accords, which covers the entire Middle East geography. Two months before the fall of the regime, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights published a statement saying that this plan was in place and that it was waiting for the conditions to mature.” 

 

'TURKEY WANTS TO LEGITIMIZE THE GANGS'

 

Pointing out that the Turkish media and AKP politicians are trying to create the perception that "Assad was overthrown because he did not agree with Turkey", Kar said: "This has nothing to do with reality. Because the plan is much bigger and much more pre-prepared. It is a thesis put forward by Turkey to save itself and to legitmize the Syrian National Army Forces it is currently supporting. Turkey had already occupied a large part of Syria. There is nothing more legitimate than Assad's denial of this. This is a very big lie. This is a formulation to legitimize the forces that Turkey supports."

 

TURKEY'S OBJECTIVES IN SYRIA

 

Kar said that with the new situation, Turkey has three goals in Syria; to make the forces loyal to it a government partner, to send refugees back and to eliminate the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria. Kar reminded that Turkey has been sending frequent messages to eliminate the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria since the beginning or ghe new offensive and noted that Turkey aims to create a 40 kilometer deep buffer zone on the Syrian border from the east of the Euphrates River to the Federated Kurdistan Region, where the Kurdish population is densely populated. 

 

'TURKEY DOES NOT WANT THE KURDS TO WIN'

 

With the new equation, Turkey is acting on the axis of eliminating the Autonomous Administration said Kar and added: "As it is known, its first attacked Till Rifaat and are currentlu working in Manbij. Then there are serious statements that they will move further east of the Euphrates. Turkey definitely does not want the Kurds to have any gains there and for this reason, it is attacking the jihadist organizations there. Most of those who carry out these attacks are gangs directed and fed by Turkey. Of course, none of the imperialist and Zionist powers have lifted a finger on this issue."

 

KURDS WILL BE INCLUDED IN THE NEW MAP' 

 

Stating that the Kurds will take their place in the new Syrian map despite the Turkish factor, Kar continued as follows: “Of course, the Kurdish people have a serious place in the project that Netanyahu and especially the US have been working on for a long time. But they are against the Autonomous Administration because it does not fit into the equation they want. Not only the US and Israel are against it, but also Arab nationalism, which is based on the concept of nation-state. On the other hand, there is the Turkish factor. But in the end, it is very clear that the Kurds will have a place in the new map of Syria. The Kurds are now in the equation, and I even think that the Kurds will be represented in a central government coalition that will be formed. They were not accepted to Geneva before. In this new process, if the Autonomous Administration, which holds 35 percent of Syria's land, is not represented here, it could lead to a very serious and new conflict.” 

 

WHY DID THE REGIME COLLAPSE SO QUICKLY?

 

Explaining that the dissolution of the Syrian regime in such a short time was due to the political, economic and sectarian developments in the country, Kar said: “HTS made statements to both the Syrian people and the peoples of the region in the photo it gave at the Aleppo Castle that it had changed and that its only goal was to overthrow Assad. The Syrian people, despite HTS's understanding of beheading on the basis of identity, belief and ethnicity in the past, welcomed this situation with silence and concern. The withdrawal of the system and army forces made these people more worried. The various social dynamics of the Syrian people, who already had no hope in the system, had no confidence in the Syrian government. There was hunger, security, poverty, corruption, you name it. They could not even get electricity for 5-6 years. The Syrian people had already fought this struggle for 12 years and paid a great price. They also kept their distance from this. They approached it with great anxiety and a sense of the lesser of two evils. Thus, Aleppo was taken very easily. Then Hama, then Homs was taken. In other words, the process developed very fast and all the statements coming from the Syrian government were 'We don't want bloodshed, we don't want war. That's why we are withdrawing our army units'. These statements were not credible, of course.” 

 

'THEY WILL CLASH WITH EACH OTHER' 

 

Stating that no one should trust the new power in Syria too much, Kar said that there are nearly 100 armed organizations under the umbrella of the SNA and all of them have problems with each other. Stressed that this situation could trigger new conflicts, Kar said: “70 percent of these gangs are forces fighting with the HTS mentality. In other words, they are forces that will take revenge on each other when the opportunity arises. There are 13 different organizations under the roof of HTS. These are Uighurs, Chechens, Uzbeks, Tajiks, that is, non-Syrian communities. How will they settle in this multi-ethnic, multi-faith Syrian society? The Syrian issue and the war in Syria does not only concern Syria, its impact will be felt in all countries in the region. It will spread to Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Turkey and Egypt. This will also have a huge negative impact on the Palestinian cause.”

 

THE POSITION OF IRAN AND RUSSIA 

 

Stating that Iran and Russia lost their current position in the Middle East with the fall of Syria, Kar continued as follows: “With the fall of the regime in Syria, Russia no longer has the chance to play the role it played in the past. Syria was Russia's only gateway to the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean. In order to protect the bases it has established, it will continue to make alliances with new powers. Iran has also established an axis of resistance across the region, from the Houthis in Yemen, HTS in Iraq, Hezbollah in Lebanon to the Zaynabists, Haidarists and Fatimis in Syria. When this circle falls back, they will become a target for the US and Israel. The only way out for Iran is to use new power to reweave this line. Iran has lost that in Syria. It no longer has a chance to exist in Syria.”

 

MA / Esra Solin Dal